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High-Probability Trade Setups: A Chartist?s Guide to Real-Time Trading, by Timothy Knight
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A comprehensive volume of today's most profitable trade set-ups
A key element of trading is identifying situations in the financial markets that can produce a profitable trade. Fundamental analysts search for situations where a stock is undervalued or if a stock's prospective earnings growth is underestimated by a majority of investors. Technical analysts look at patterns in the market that historically indicate the direction of the markets next move. High Probability Trade Set-Ups catalogs the best trading situations from a variety of technical approaches.
Engaging and informative, High Probability Trade Set-Ups provides a detailed explanation of twenty powerful, recurring tradable situations in the financial markets. Each pattern is thoroughly described, including its strengths and drawbacks, ease of identification, and the degree to which it produces profitable trades. Most importantly, the author provides entry and exit points for each set up. Examples of the set-ups include chart patterns such as ascending triangles, diamonds, gaps, pennants, and channels.
- Features many new technical tools for tracking individual stocks
- Contains a resource guide, which will help to monitor the market for the trade set-ups discussed throughout the book
- Reveals how to use ProphetCharts to perform advanced intermarket technical studies and identify the best opportunities
Written in a straightforward and accessible style, High Probability Trade Set-Ups covers a lot of ground with respect to this approach and shows you how to use it to make the most of your time in today's dynamic markets.
- Sales Rank: #791838 in Books
- Published on: 2011-10-04
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 10.22" h x 1.22" w x 7.45" l, 1.81 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 560 pages
From the Inside Flap
A key element of trading is identifying situations in the financial markets that can produce profits. The technical analyst tends to achieve this goal by looking at patterns in the markets that historically indicate the direction of the markets' next move.
Author Tim Knight—founder of Prophet Financial Systems and the popular blog SlopeOfHope.com—has been involved in trading for a quarter century, experiencing everything from the Internet boom and dot-com crash to the housing bubble and the Great Recession. For almost that entire time, he's successfully used charts and technical analysis as the basis for his investing decisions. Now, with High-Probability Trade Setups, he shows you how to do the same.
Divided into three comprehensive parts, this reliable resource opens with an informative overview of chart setups and offers a solid introduction to the principles and philosophy of technical analysis. After providing you with a firm understanding of these essential issues, Knight turns his attention to the main focus of the book, which is historical price patterns, their results, and their nuances.
Chapter by chapter, Knight presents detailed explanations of twenty powerful patterns, using real-world examples that will help you understand their behavior and apply them to your everyday trading endeavors. Each chapter in Part Two of the book is structurally the same—introduction to a pattern, definition of the pattern, psychology behind the pattern, examples, and summary—so you can quickly gain valuable insights on patterns of particular interest to you. Some of the setups covered include chart patterns such as:
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Ascending triangles and wedges
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Diamonds
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Gaps
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Fibonacci fans
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Pennants
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Head and shoulders
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Channels
Part Three of this practical guide rounds out the discussion by outlining some critically important rules of today's trading road and sharing some valuable knowledge on short selling.
Making money in the market isn't easy, but it is possible. With High-Probability Trade Setups as your guide, you'll discover exactly what it takes to chart your way to more consistent and profitable trading.
From the Back Cover
Praise for HIGH-PROBABILITY TRADE SETUPS
"Technical analysis, in Tim Knight's way of thinking, is not just focusing on a chart and drawing lines. Rather, it's providing special market insight from years of trading. Tim's latest book makes me feel like I missed something in my own development as a trader and I want to learn more."
—Tom Sosnoff, founder of thinkorswim.com and current CEO of tastytrade.com
"Technical price patterns give traders an edge in any market, but it is a technique that is full of nuances that can be challenging for new traders. High-Probability Trade Setups explains the patterns you need to understand, and fully explains the details of why they work the way they do. Tim Knight is uniquely qualified to provide the detail that is always just skimmed over by other authors. He is one of the pioneers of computerized and Internet charting and has been studying technical patterns as a market professional since before most of today's traders opened their first brokerage account. If you want to fully understand the process of using technical patterns to find and execute successful trades, then I couldn't recommend this book more enthusiastically."
—John Jagerson, founder of LearningMarkets.com and author of All About Investing in Gold
"Tim's latest book shares his lifetime of knowledge with traders who appreciate and utilize charting and technical analysis as a critical component of developing and executing their trading strategies. With High-Probability Trade Setups, Tim adds another volume to what has become a living library of technical analysis for everyone from the beginning investor seeking an education as to the meaning of technical analysis to this latest edition which is for the more active—but still learning—trader who wants to understand the more sophisticated charting patterns and how to use them profitably. Tim lives, eats, and breathes technical analysis and charting, and I recommend this book to all investors."
—Lee Barba, former CEO, Investools
About the Author
Timothy Knight is the founder of Prophet Financial Systems (now owned by Ameritrade), which has been rated by Forbes and Barron's as the number one online site for technical analysis. He also operates a highly successful trading blog, SlopeOfHope.com. Prior to starting Prophet.net, Knight was vice president of technology products for Montgomery Securities, where he helped develop PC-based trader workstations before the development of web trading. Knight has traded for more than twenty years, primarily using technical analysis and price charts. He is also the author of both editions of Chart Your Way to Profits (Wiley).
Most helpful customer reviews
29 of 34 people found the following review helpful.
A Review of High-Probability Trade Setups: A Chartist's Guide to Real-Time Trading
By George Rahal
Author, Tim Knight, explains that, "The goal of this book has been to study a variety of common chart patterns," (p. 337) which is achieved through a systematic review each one. The book is also comprised of important, secondary material: an introduction to technical principles; a brief trading autobiography; stop-loss and trading rule suggestions; musings on being a bear, and other insights. Let me first comment on the secondary material.
The short introduction is excellent for a novice. The writing explains, with simplicity, clarity, and precision--not too surprising, coming from an author of twenty books--the basic principles of technical analysis. I would probably have taken this introduction for granted if not for a personal experience. This summer, I gave student from Rollins College a crash course in finance, covering both technicals and fundamentals. His reading list included several chapters from an introductory and comprehensive book on technical analysis. He once mentioned, "After having gone through half the book, once I finally induced what the author meant by bullish and bearish, it became a lot easier to understand." Keep in mind, this student was particularly bright and had a near 4.0 GPA. Arduous hours of confusion could have been avoided if the book's introduction were to have explained the two terms we all take for granted. Had "High-Probability Trade Setups" been published in June of this year, it would have been my first choice for poor Sam.
Moving on to the autobiographical section, Tim Knight writes, "Every trader has a story, and I think it's helpful to understand a particular trader's narrative to better grasp what they have to say about the markets." (p. 15) Although both claims made in the sentence are true, the author humbly fails to acknowledge that his trading story is particularly interesting. It includes his perspectives on the internet boom, the dot-com crash, the housing bubble and great recession; it also includes personal tales, such as how the founding of his business, Prophet, was aided by a fortuitous encounter with Andy Bechtolsheim, cofounder of Sun Microsystems, a year prior.
All the sections, although seemingly disparate, are related. An entire chapter is dedicated to setting stop orders, a critical practice. Many of the patterns covered earlier serve as examples and guidelines for setting stops. In that chapter, the reader will encounter this valuable advice, "The price you choose for your stop-loss should be based on this one question: At which price is my basis for holding on to this position violated?" (p. 320) One of the best, money saving insights provided--also integrating the sections-- regards trading incomplete chart patterns with the anticipation that they will materialize: "You will find that jumping the gun like this will backfire so many times that it simply doesn't become worth the extra profit you might make." (p. 341)
As to the chapter, "A Guide to Real Life Trading," suffice it to say that any trader, with any level of experience, benefits from reading and rereading trading rules! Another noteworthy insight is provided earlier in the work, "You will never get rich being a bear." (p. 7). It is common knowledge, and easily discernable, that the maximum profit on a short sale is 100%, and that the profit on a long can be several hundred or even thousand percent. However, the comment--perhaps due to its phrasing and coming from a bearishly inclined individual-- resonates against the proverbial big picture, and can perhaps influence one's general trading philosophy.
The Main Topic and How Its Coverage Compares with Other Books
In the Patterns section of the book, one chapter is dedicated to each pattern, for example, cup with handle, diamonds, flags, head and shoulders, etc. The structure remains the same for each chapter, which is comprised of four subsections: Definition of the Pattern; Psychology behind the Pattern; Examples; Summary. This systematic treatment makes the book easier to read, comprehend, and return to for reference.
I am aware of four popular comprehensive books on technical analysis. Three that I have read are "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards & Magee, "Technical Analysis" by Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist, and "Technical Analysis Explained" by Pring. Tim Knight's book focuses on one topic, chart patterns; however, all the books mentioned have sections dedicated to them. So, allow me to propose and then answer a consumer question: "Why should I buy Tim Knight's book if I can get the same information from books that also cover additional topics?"
To answer that question, I have created a table comparing these books' treatment of chart patterns based on five criteria. The ratings are as follows:
0. The book does not make note of this criterion
1. The book covers the criterion well
2. The book covers the criterion very well
3. The book covers the criterion very well, and definitively better than the others.
Any score of 0 does not reflect some deficiency; rather, it is due to a conscious choice by the author(s) to not incorporate that criterion into their treatment of the subject.
........Real Chart Examples, Readability, Comprehensiveness, Pattern Psychology, Statistics on patterns
Knight:..........2......................3....................2......................2...........................0............
Pring:............1......................2....................2......................1...........................0...........
K. & D.:.........0......................2....................2......................0...........................2............
E. & M.:.........2......................1....................2......................3...........................0............
(Amazon is not table friendly, so I apologize for the "table's" unaesthetic formatting.)
Knight and Edwards & Magee have the highest cumulative scores based on those criteria. "High-Probability Trade Setups" is far more readable than the latter for two reasons: Tim Knight's writing is simple and clear, and the chapters' consistent structure makes reference easy. His book thoroughly covers the psychology behind patterns, but of all four books, Edwards & Magee do it best, which I speculate may be because they lived before the cold computer age.
Consumer Profiles and Recommendations
So where does all of the above leave us? I would make the most enthused recommendation of this book to someone who is completely new to technical analysis and who wants to test the waters. This book has all the information--although human guidance is important--a person, novice or expert, needs to practice technical analysis, without being overwhelmed by overlays, indicators and methods. I have concluded that trendlines and types of resistance and support (moving averages, retracements, and previous highs and lows) are everything a successful technical trader needs. Chart patterns are predefined combinations of trendlines. Many technicians revert to simplicity after frustrated forays into the complex and the arcane. As T.S. (not R. N.) Elliott wrote, "And at the end of all our exploring, will be to arrive where we started, and know the place for the first time."
For those still exploring, perhaps traversing dozens of books, whether this particular one would warmly settle in your library is more of a person call--it depends on how meaningful pattern analysis is, or will be, to your "toolbox". "High-Probability Trade Setups" would best suit experienced technicians as an encyclopedia-like reference book for several chart patterns. It can serve 1) to learn and review classical patterns and 2) to check the various real-life chart examples provided and see how they match with a pattern one has identified in real-time and is contemplating for their own trading.
Finally, for those on the fence, I appeal to the secondary material already discussed. (There are also other aspects and musings of the book I did not cover in this review.) Mr. Knight's engaging biographical material is a treat in itself; his decades of practice and observation have garnered trading insights worth reading; and the material is useful to both novice and experienced traders. -Or, perhaps you are more like me, a long time reader of Tim Knight's blog, Slope of Hope, who has come to admire his wit, soul-bearing personality, and industriousness; and who thought you'd be in for a good read. I pay "High-Probability Trade Setups" the highest compliment an individual informed by financial culture can: it exceeded my expectations.
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16 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
Mostly Fluff
By amazonreviewer
Pro
- interesting history of the author and Prophet Charts
- help with undocumented Prophet features
- useful discussion of going short vs. long
Con
- bulk of book is pictures of charts which illustrate set ups which turned out successful
- this is title of book, yet it is mostly content free
- no statistics to indicate the probabilities of set ups
- not even very clear on how to execute trades around them
1 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Pure Pattern Analysis
By AJ
This book presents the popular patterns with tons of chart examples to support the explanation. Furthermore the author illustrates the psychology of investors going through each phase of the pattern formation. The book is a bible of patterns pure and simple and would be an excellent addition to both beginner and experienced traders. After reading this book you should become better in spotting formations and more confident in trading them. I would also strongly recommend to use the software mentioned in the book "Prophet Charts" and to follow Tim's website at ([...]) where he posts priceless thoughts & recommendations on the current day to day market activity.
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